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moneymakerpoker| Times Observation 丨 The accelerating pace of government bond supply helps slow down interest rate risks in the bond market

Decor 2024年04月25日 13:02 17 editor

On the evening of April twenty _ thirdMoneymakerpokerThe people's Bank of China once again alerted the interest rate risk of long-term treasury bonds, attracting the attention of the financial market. In an interview with the media, the relevant responsible person of the central bank made a detailed response to such issues as the recent decline in long-term treasury bond yields and the central bank's trading of treasury bonds in the secondary market. When trading opened on April 24, the market also "understood", and the yields of all maturity varieties of medium-and long-term treasury bonds showed a marked upward trend.

It is worth noting that since April, the central bank has repeatedly "shouted" to the market on the issue of bond market yields falling too fast. From the proposal at the beginning of this month that "in the process of economic recovery, we should also pay attention to the changes in long-term yields", to the central bank discussing the market situation of long-term interest-rate-limited bonds with three policy banks, and then to this interview, the core point that the central bank wants to convey to the market is that the current long-term limited treasury bond yield has deviated from the fundamentals and can not effectively reflect long-term economic growth and inflation expectations. The reason for the deviation from the fundamentals is mainly affected by the phased imbalance between supply and demand of government debt and other factors.

From the perspective of government debt supply, in the first quarter of this year, the pace of government bond issuance was slow, and the supply decreased significantly. Compared with the same period last year, the issuance of government bonds in the first quarter was nearly 240 billion yuan less, and the net financing was about 470 billion yuan less. Among them, the new special bond issuance only achieves 16% of the annual issuance target.Moneymakerpoker.3%, the release progress is slow. From the point of view of the demand for debt allocation, although the main force of debt allocation in the market has rotated since the beginning of this year, it has brought a considerable influx of funds into the bond market. In March, the market is still paying attention to the strong demand for debt allocation of regional small and medium-sized banks. since April, the scale of bank financial management has grown strongly, and the corresponding demand for debt allocation has also risen; insurance funds have been affected by banks' pressure on high-cost deposits, and there is a need for funds to shift from deposits to long-term interest-rate-limited bonds.

moneymakerpoker| Times Observation 丨 The accelerating pace of government bond supply helps slow down interest rate risks in the bond market

With the launch of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the second quarter, the weak supply of government bonds is expected to be significantly alleviated, and the re-adjustment of the relationship between supply and demand will be conducive to the return of long-term limited interest rate bonds to fundamentals. Long-term restricted bonds are relatively sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the risk of interest rate correction in extreme markets.

However, it should also be noted that since the trend of long-term interest rate-limited bonds is also affected by investors' expectations for future economic growth and inflation, the problem of weak expectations reflected by the continued decline in interest rates so far this year should not be taken lightly. Although China's economy got off to a good start in the first quarter, the real GDP growth rate exceeded market expectations by 5.3%, but the nominal GDP growth rate was lower than the actual GDP growth rate, reflecting low prices and weak corporate profitability, which is also one of the reasons for the "temperature difference" between macro data and micro perception.

In the next few quarters, macro policies need to continue the expansion tone on the basis of a good start to the economy in the first quarter, properly handle the relationship between risk prevention in areas such as real estate and local government hidden debt, and consolidate the economic recovery trend, and pay more attention to the sustained efforts of the policy.

Editor: Zhu Yumeng

Proofreading: ran Yanqing

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