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The agency pointed out thatPlayasteroidsIn the context of the gradual recovery of macroeconomic and consumer confidencePlayasteroidsThe spirits sector is under pressure at the emotional stage, but with the smooth landing of the annual report and the opening of the quarterly report slightly more than expected, the stabilizing signal is expected to appear and attach importance to the pro-cyclical layout opportunities as the economy picks up.

Core logic

onePlayasteroids. Liquor sector 2023 annual report landed smoothly, high-end wine and strong regional leaders stable high-quality growth, sub-high-end continued differentiation. In a year of overall macroeconomic pressure, the liquor industry has shown strong resilience. From the end of the annual report, the industry continues to concentrate on the head liquor and regional strong leaders. According to the financial report of each plate, we can see that the regional famous liquor and soy sauce liquor > Suhui liquor ≈ high-end liquor > sub-high-end liquor, looking back to 2023, the overall growth of liquor is spindle-shaped, and the high-end and middle-and low-end performance is better.

twoPlayasteroids. in 2024, the first quarterly report got off to a good start, the competition pattern continued to differentiate, and the head wine enterprises showed their resilience. From the point of view of the quarterly report, the overall rebate of the plate is maintained, the overall inventory removal effect is better than expected, and the advantages of high-end liquor and Suhui liquor are obvious. Among them, the brand strength of high-end wine is the first, and the demand is strong during the Spring Festival peak season. Mao Wuli all raised prices before the festival, effectively boosting dealers and terminal stock demand, and Longtou's market share increased significantly; sub-high-end Fenjiu benefited from the two-wheel drive of channels and brands, superimposed fragrance category potential energy improved, volume and price rose brightly. Su Hui wine benefits from the boom of returning home, leading to the warming of demand in scenes such as returning home for self-drinking and banquets, strong regional wine continues to grow potential energy, sauce and wine competition pattern continues to optimize, high-quality head brand potential can be accelerated.

3. This round of price increase in the liquor industry is not only a strategy for liquor enterprises to maintain the price system, but also a strategic end-market feedback that needs continuous follow-up and verification to seize the blank price. 1) by raising prices, wine enterprises can lock in dealers' capital channels, customer resources and consumption scenes in advance; 2) seize the blank price belt, because after the price increase of head wine companies, the gap with the sub-high-end price belt is widened. sub-high-end products are expected to seize more market blank price bands through price increases. 3) raising prices in the off-season is actually a stable price. After the Spring Festival peak season, dealers and terminal stocks generally increase wine enterprises by controlling shipments, raising ex-factory prices and other means to enhance dealers' confidence, so as to eliminate inventory and maintain the stability of wholesale prices.

4. From the perspective of the fund's heavy holdings, the proportion of Q1 food and beverage allocation (the market value of heavy holdings accounts for the total market value of heavy stocks) rebounded to 14.14% in 2024 from 13.65% of Q4 in 2023, an increase of 0.49 points compared with the previous year. From the point of view of decomposition, it is mainly caused by the increase of the proportion of heavy liquor stores by 0.63 points to 12.54%. Although the market is more pessimistic about the liquor sector before the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival liquor sales are booming, and the post-holiday liquor channels are in good order (reflected in the decline in inventory and firm wholesale prices), and the market mood for food and beverages has warmed up in stages. reflected in the capital side, we can still see a rebound in liquor positions.

Be good for individual stocks

Founder Securities pointed out that the industry is showing squeezed growth, and it is expected that the differentiation will further intensify. The liquor sector suggests that attention should be paid to those with better performance in the first quarter:

1) in the macroeconomic shift period, brand + channel is king: the toughness of high-end liquor highlights Guizhou Moutai (600519), Wuliangye (000858), Luzhou laojiao (000568); the nationalization process of secondary high-end leader is accelerated, and its fragrance can improve Shanxi Fenjiu (600809). Su Hui liquor growth positive today (603369), Gujing tribute liquor (000596), Yingjia tribute liquor (603198)

2) Li du, a rare wine that benefits from the steady expansion of the soy sauce market in the future.

3) Enterprises with steady expansion of intensive farming areas and upgrading of regional consumption, pay attention to Jinhui Liquor, which will benefit from the improvement of low prices in Gansu Province in the next few years (603919); Yilit (600197)

4) the trend of liquor online sales expansion is clear, focusing on the professional operation platform Xinhua du (002264), which has both strong supply chain advantages and strong middle and background operation foundation.

Ping an Securities believes that after the liquor has entered the off-season, the major liquor enterprises pay more attention to supply-side control, through price increases, control goods stable batch prices, mobile sales still continue the early steady momentum, inventory month-on-month removal. It is recommended to pay attention to three main lines: first, the strong demand for high-end liquor, Guizhou Moutai (600519), Wuliangye, Luzhou laojiao; second, secondary high-end liquor benefiting from the warming of business demand, recommend Shanxi Fenjiu; third, the relatively strong economy of Jiangsu and Anhui regional leading liquor enterprises, recommend Gujing tribute liquor, today's fate.