free3cardpoker|国元期货范芮：基本面利多出尽铜价将有回落

News 2024年05月06日 15:00 14 editor

Copper prices continued to fluctuate at high levels last week. The price of copper continued to rise to 82500 yuan in the early week.Free3cardpokerAfter the May Day holiday in China, the rise in the price of copper on the outer disk was blocked and continued to weaken in the late week.

On the macro level, the Fed's interest rate meeting remained on schedule, and the target range of the federal funds rate was still 5%.Free3cardpoker.25% to 5%Free3cardpoker.50%. The Fed's resolution states that a big change is reflected in the action plan to reduce the balance sheet (shrinking sheet). The Fed cut the maximum size of US Treasuries that it plans to shrink by more than half. From June, the maximum monthly shrinking table of US Treasuries was reduced to 25 billion, a reduction of 35 billion US dollars over Wall Street expectations of 30 billion US dollars, while the MBS ceiling of institutions remained unchanged. At a subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that on the issue of interest rate cuts, it will take longer to gain confidence than originally expected, and short-term inflation expectations have risen, but the next step is unlikely to be to raise interest rates.

In addition, a number of US macroeconomic data exceeded expectations. Non-farm payrolls in the United States rose to 175000 in April, the smallest increase in six months, far less than the expected figure of 240000 and the previous figure of 315000.Free3cardpokerIn February, non-farm payrolls were revised down by 34000, from 270000 to 236000; the US unemployment rate was 3.9 per cent in April, roughly the highest level since January 2022, higher than expected and 3.8 per cent higher than expected. After the release of the data, traders' expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut were advanced from November to September, with US stocks and Treasuries rising and the dollar falling, but the positive effect on copper prices was limited.

In terms of industry, as of April 30, global explicit inventory showed a slow de-stocking trend. Among them, the previous copper inventory is 288300 tons, there is still obvious inventory pressure, but since mid-April inventory overall showed a downward trend; LME copper inventory of 116100 tons, there is no obvious inventory pressure; COMEX inventory 24400 tons. With the steady recovery of terminal demand and the superimposed impact of domestic smelter maintenance, the dominant inventory of global exchanges gradually presents a trend of destocking.

On the supply side, the processing fee for imported copper concentrate reported by SMM reached a single-digit level of US $2.07 per tonne on April 30th, an all-time low. According to the investigation of SMM, the maintenance of domestic refineries will be concentrated in the second quarter, and the output will be affected by maintenance of a large magnitude, but the effect of centralized maintenance on copper price has been basically completed. According to SMM, the internal meeting of the CSPT group on April 26th decided to increase exports. In May, domestic mainstream smelters plan to export about 50, 000 tons of electrolytic copper. Although the move helps to ease the pressure on domestic refined copper inventory, it has no significant impact on the global supply and demand structure of refined copper.

Generally speaking, the false high copper price deviates from the fundamentals, the fundamentals are more profitable, and the copper price will have the risk of falling back.